When, when will this financial crisis end?

An interesting fact - according to the San Fransisco Chronicle - IPOs hit its lowest level in this quarter in 30 years. Anyone thinking of going public in a non-liquid world? no, not really right.. Other rumors circulate around the fact that Glitnir is going to be purchased by Icelandic Landsbanki. A lot of VC's sitting around and hoping to cash in on their investments.. I guess thats not going to happen - not now anyway..

I read somewhere that the statistical facts says that we are not really in an actual depression - if you compare with the crisis in 1929 (anyhow).

Midnight oil #2 and marketing

Seems like this week is like a holiday in the worst salt mine imaginable - well, not that Im whipped to sleep every night.. its a lot of work... plus, this morning I saw the first rain here in Oslo.

Update: Currently doing some last minute panic reading for our marketing class and thinking about the issues with Deutsche Breuerei.. a family owned German brewery with serious cash constraints due to an international investment in a former Soviet republic.. very interesting case, and in my opinion a classic example of what happens when you finance your expansion plans with short term debt and current assets.

Very interesting discussion about Lexus activities in Souther California. Absolutely great.

Insane mega merger..

Another interesting merger emerged on NY Times business session. Citigroup is buying Wachovias branches of banks, making Citigroup into even a bigger giant only to be rivaled by two other banks in the U.S; Bank of America and JP Morgan Chase.

Apparently the value of deal is not disclosed, but Citi is taking over 42 billion USD (equal to ~ 240 billion SEK) out of Wachovias bad debt pool of 312 billion USD. Insurance from the FED is also acquired for 12 billion USD of preferred shares. On the upside, Citi gets a hold of Wachovias "good" debt as well - which amounts to 400 billion USD.

In comparison the banks involved in the Swedish banking crisis lost approx. 180 billion SEK (about 60 billion USD). How much is a billion USD? if you stack the quarters on top of each other, the stack would go to the moon...

Credit crunch...

I read a great post on the Becker-Posner blog today. It seems to sum up the current credit crunch quite well.

"Many lenders have so much of their capital tied up in mortgage-backed securities or other novel forms of capital that are difficult to value that they cannot attract new capital at a price that would enable the lender to continue in business. The sale of the securities would just expose their lack of value." - Richard Posner

A new week

So, a new week has started.. I am currently sitting in the class room preparing for a subject called "group processes". The weekend was great, but a lot of work. "Finished" off two cases in the group and initiated another - the outcome so far in my opinion? (6/10 i guess, if i rate my own work)

In the news.. banking giant Fortis seems to have done some extraordinary stupid deals (I mean, why not?). When will we see the stupid mistakes in Scandinavia? (well, disregarding the smaller Danish banks). My old - very old - employer Starbucks, has taken a lot of hits lately and Howard Schultz has announced that he is going to re-focus the organizations. I mean, you go to Starbucks for the nice coffee.. not to eat sweet buns and bad sandwiches.

Midnight oil

So, Im currently doing some interesting calculations on Deutsche Brauerei (Im probably spelling that wrong).. its soon half past twelve and Im doing Excel spreadsheets. Im kinda tired.. but something inside me thinks its quite fun. Anyhow... ... looking through the pictures again.. man, i look like a dork on almost all of them.

Pictures from last night - Patricias birthday

Maike, Patricia and Laura

Kalle (Carl S in the Star Wars conversations) and me

Erlend & Kalle, me in the background with Thomas and Karthik

Erlend, Kalle, Thomas, Karthik and meKarthik, me, Kalle, Rafael, Ranajays hand and Filipe

Going out.

A lot of friends from the class were out drinking yesterday. I was really tired when I went out.. and I was even more tired when I came home.. well, I think I went to bed at around 2 o clock. Im paying for that now.. really.. I need to be at school. ASAP!

... yet another very interesting chat conversation in the library...

Carl S says:
muddihadi muddihadi ikkihadi
Carl F says:
but how can they be jamming us if they dont know we're coming..... [sad look in Landos eyes]
Carl S says:
ITS A TRAP!!!
Carl F says:
"abort the mission"
Carl S says:
all ships, concentrate your fire on the super star destroyer
Carl F says:
he he he .

A crisis that never seems to end.

I am currently sitting the quiet part of the library, reading to cases for two hand-ins next week. One strategy case is called "Pearl River Piano" and is about a Chinese piano manufacturer that wants to compete with Steinway & Sons. The other one is fairly old, and is about Pacific Pride - an american gas station business with an IT-system from what seems to be the stone age.

In the news, which is really weird... JP Morgan Chase buys Washington Mutual - the second largest lender in the US and Swedish Swedbank is under attack. Didnt Swedbank have a operating profit of almost 9 bn SEK during their first 6 months of 2008? Then maybe... just maybe filing for bankruptcy is pretty farfetched - at the moment that is..

Guest lecturer from the US

We are currently having a guest lecture by Prof. James Thurber. He is currently here visiting the U.S Embassy in Norway and is here to talk to us about the US election process and the climate changes.

• James Thurber on Wikipedia

Short chat in the break done on MSN in the same classroom

Carl S says:

- "now watch the firepower of this fully ARMED and OPERATIONAL battlestation"
Carl F. says:
- "that blast came from the death star"
Carl F. says:
- !!!
Carl S says:
- thats no moon.....
Carl F. says:
- "we would last longer against them than against that death star"
Carl F. says:
- guess who!?
Carl S says:
- lando
Carl F. says:
- sweet

"New" explanation to the credit crunch..

I have found a new really good article/bloc explaining the current credit crunch.

• Wall Street Crisis: Stephen Schwarzmann explains it all

Stephen Schwarzmann is the Chairman of the Blackstone Group.

New case..

We are now doing another case. It's on an interesting company (well..) called Pearl River Piano. Its about a Chinese piano manufacturer and its fairly interesting.

Group class.

I am now sitting in a class where we discuss teams and team dynamic. I cannot judge if I will use this knowledge or not.. It feels relevant, but I can't stop pondering on next weeks work - which will surpass last week. I think we have three group hand-ins (Strategy, IT Management with Espen Andersen and Micro).

Here are some nice articles on the Wall Street crash aftermath (which the Swedish newspapers are terrible at reporting.. including DI.se/E24

• The Bailout: Public Angers, Private Talks - in BusinessWeek
• Goldman gets Buffet Aid - from Bloomberg

(interesting that Warren Buffet purchases a big chunk of G.S - 4.5 %, with the option to increase this piece in 5 years to 9 %.. i wonder what goes on in Lloyd Blankfeins head)

Download a MP3 from the Guardian where William Keegan describes the credit crunch and the bail-out package made by Paulson and the Fed.

Yesterday and preparing for a case in marketing

I am now overdue on two books that I have in my locker - ill have to deliver them back to the library.. We are having yet another guest lecturer today in Management of IT. We had a lot of material to read for this session. Two cases covering the knowledge management models at Andersen Consulting (Accenture) and McKinsey. Andersen's model seems very similar to how we have it at IBM. Very network based and impossible to search through.

Done with my tickets..

I should add that I have bought my tickets to China... Im flying with Swiss for SEK ~ 6 400. Not that bad to be honest (return ticket to Shanghai, from Stockholm - via Zürich).

Today has been a weird day. We have had two guest lecturers.. An old BI MBA told us about Intellectual Property Rights and now we are having a class discussion about Morgan Motor company and what kind of resources that are really utilized to create competitive advantage. I would like to finish up my reading for this week.

The last picture is of Sheremetyevo 2 - the international airport located in Moscow.

Back in Norway.

So, Im now back in Norway. I am currently in the accounting class.. I was late to a case discussion on the Morgan Motor Company, but my group-friends didnt seem to mind that much. I am very tired after being in Stockholm, which was very nice. I studied until half past ten yesterday... Nice with an early evening :-)

Agreement with Mannheim...

I dont know if I have forgotten to add this, but in the second semester we are allowed to go on a short "exchange" with the Mannheim Business School where you can study parallel on their MBA-program.. which some rankings are very good. Anyhow, I remember seeing some very interesting course - particularly in marketing and negotiations.

It also seems as if i have heavily underestimated next weeks work load.. ... ...

In Stockholm

Woke up very late... looked at the news and saw that the Swedish stock exchange had risen with more than 6 %.. very weird times we are living in. It feels great to be back in Stockholm even though I have a lot of work with me. Apparently the Excel assignment we have in Managerial Accounting is fairly easy.. which I am grateful for (since I have used Excel so much). Anyhow.. Cant wait until Roger Lowenstein comes out with a new book regarding the CDOs and the market turbulence we have seen over the last 13 months.

Until then, i recommend these books:

• When Genius Failed
• Origins of the crash

...And these articles (I strongly recommend "Triple-A failure" - it clearly defines some issues of the current credit crunch):

• Triple-A failure in New York Times
• Subprime time in New York Times
• The Inequality conundrum in New York Times

Most of what he has written is very entertaining! (i promise)

Leaving for Stockholm

Im flying out of Oslo tonight.. leaving for Stockholm with Norwegian 21.10. Returning sunday.. ill bring several cases with me during the week end.. Ill have a great time in Stockholm :)

I have also go buy a new autumn coat / jacket and some knitwear.. ill go to H&M, I can already feel that its getting colder by the day here in Norway.. besides that, ill have a great weekend in Stockholm.

The cases: had to revise some issues with the cash flow statement for Mitsui.. Currently in a class with Öystein Fjeldstad.. and he is great. Value shops, value chains and value networks in practice.

A picture of me in the printing room

I recently took this picture of myself in the printing room. Enjoy (öööh..) - Well, thought i could "spice up the blog".

I just finished structuring next weeks work. Feels good, not as intensive as this week. Cant wait until we start our corporate finance good.. Its so nice when it happens good as J Seinfeld would say..

Marketing on segmentation

I am currently sitting on my ordinary seat in class. This is more or less exactly what i see. Weird day today... American Fed is taking over AIG, and Im sitting in class doing marketing.

Hand-ins and new lecture in IT management

We delivered two hand-ins and Im now in class again.. i think we did good. We are currently discussing the Dell case (made by Porter).

The insensitivity in the class room was more "fierce" than before.... well, not fierce. Dell has taken in Michael Dell as their new CEO, and started to sell computers in stores.

A nice payment and the Ronstan case

Ok, im in a class about internationalization of business. Apparently, Lehman CEO Dick Fuld received a bonus of $ 160 million in march this year (money well spent, directors of the board of Lehman!). However, i think Fuld is actually crying to his way to the bank.. i mean, who would want to cash in his stock options? Way to go handling that risk from the real estate sector. I am still amazed on how basic and bad the Scandinavian business magazines are... Bad analysis, bad outline..

In about an hour, we will go through the case of Ronstan, an Aussie sail-boat-part manufacturor.

Group work on Glamox

I am currently at school and sitting in a group room doing work on a Norwegian lighting company called Glamox. I am part of a fairly international group, the members are:

• Erlend, Norwegian guy from the Norwegian military
• Lars, Norwegian guy with exposure to the ERP-implementation in the Norweigan military
• Deepthi, an Indian girl from Ericsson competitor, Huawei..

.. very diverse team, and we have had some very interesting discussion..

In the library, 17.44

So, im in the library of the school and I am currently reading a case about lemonade.. its a very basic accounting case which I shouldn't spend more than 30 minutes on... hopefully.. then I'm thinking of a quiet evening with some Xbox and an audio book... but first, another case.
(the picture is taken from the group room that we have our meetings in)

Lecture in strategy..

We are now having a lecture by Dr Öystein Fjeldstad, a Norwegian Strategy scientist who has written several articles on Value chains, value shops and value networks.

A similar article was produced by Mr Norrman and Mr Ramirez in the Harvard Business Review.

Norwegian School of Management, Öystein Fjeldstad and Telenor has entered an agreement where Fjeldstad - i guess - is going to do research for Telenor. Read about it here.

These cases...

We have given a lot to read for the following week.. A lot, the cases for the first three days of the following week are: Christys Lemonade (basic, classic case), Ronstan, Dell, Glamox, McDonalds, Mitsui and "Open Market".

My personal notes the last couple of days..

If you want to, you can now read my notes for the last 4 days in school. I'm not going to update the .zip-file, but its just there to give you a hint of whats happening.

Download the notes here!

Mrs. Fields and Shibsted done!

The two first case-discussion is now over. The concentration was also on some of the articles that had for today. I didn't answer any questions on these - but tried to explain Randy Spears actions in creating a cookie conglomerate. I also advocated business units. The Mrs. Fields and Schipsted-documents are now "open".

During the lecture, Dr Espen Andersen, told us to read The Becker-Posner Blog.

Marketing management

Oh, we have now our first class in marketing management. It is led by a Dr Erik Olsson.. an American with a MBA from Indiana U. He seems very good, and interesting take on the course, focus on "green energy".. which I very much enjoy. Looking forward to it.

New strategy course..

I am currently in class with Prof Randi Lunnan.. she has taught at Harvard Business School... we are currently discussing "Blue ocean strategy" and what we are going to go through in the school. She seems very good.

Documents for two cases!

I have now prepared two cases and files will be "opened" after i have gone through the cases. I think i have done fairly well with my analysis..

• Mrs Fields
• Schibsted

From a calm library..

I'm currently reading up on tomorrows lectures.. in 30 minutes I'm going to start the group-preparation on the Schibsted-case. We have finally gotten the courses for the first "block" of studies:

• Marketing management
• Applied microeconomics
• Ethics, values and integrity
• The strategic context
• Management of IT
• Corporate Finance 1

I also noticed that the syllabus changed in two of the courses.. that didn't feel very fair, but what can I do since I bought them on Ebay.. WTF

Databases in a very crowded computer lab

I am now sitting in the computer lab searching the term "reaganomics". Quite fun and very powerful search engines. The school has access to search engines such as the Business Source Complete (i think its was called Business Source Premier when i used it), Factive, Zephyr and Amadeus.. oh, the last two gives me some flashbacks of the corporate finance-job i had at KPMG. It's going to be fun to use those again.. Its a a shame that we dont have access to Capital IQ.. that is a great engine. It also seems as if we have access to Datamonitor.

Read the case about Schibsted yesterday... seems hard, its harder to figure out a good strategy for them than Mrs Fields.. 'Fields' felt like a walk in the park.. Schibsted has a search engine and competing head-to-head with Google.. i wonder why? compete against Google? that feels like IT-suicide. Can't stop thinking about Schibsted though (i know that they started a free give away daily paper in Stockholm, that turned out to be shit and cannibalized on their Aftonbladet issue - and they disbanded the give-away paper)... but what could they have done beside this?

The case is maintained and selected by Espen Andersen.

Group meeting

I have now had my girlfriend to visit me in Oslo, which has been fantastic. I have also had my first group meeting at BI together with my group, Group 4. We have discussed the case Mrs Fields over a couple of hours... tonight im going to go through the material and the Schibsted case.

In regards to the Mrs Fields case, we analyzed the situation that arose back in the 80's regarding their IT-system and the vast redundancy information that the corporation had. I also found a source saying that the company filed for bankruptcy in the august 2008. This article tells the story that the P/E backed cookie manufacturer has filed for Chapter 11.

The case is maintained and selected by Espen Andersen. He will also be spearheading the discusson on the Schibsted case.

Two cases and final day of introduction

We are now having the final day of introduction. We are now having an intro-lecture by Dr. Harald Böckman from the University of Oslo. We have been given two cases; Mrs Fields Cookies and Schibsted. Both are delivered from HBS.

English from now on..

Because of pressure from the school and from the people in class.. I will, from now on, conduct the blog in English. I hope that this is ok.

Två nya case..

Vi vet nu att vi ska ha två stycken nya case till nästa onsdag.. Bl.a. ett om Schibsted som kommer att användas på klassen som en "try-out" för ett seminarie som ska hållas för HBS-Alumni. Rätt coolt att veta att man ingår i en test-grupp för den gruppen. Nåja, ska bli intressant att se hur mycket jobb det krävs för det.

Det har börjat!

Så, då sitter jag på första dagen på MBA-programmet vid BI.. det har varit lite genomgångar.. jag har skrivit på ett dokument där jag lovar att inte fuska.. och sen har jag installerat en printer och ätit lunch. Hittills har det varit bra. (Bilderna är tagen från klassrummet och från "minglet" utanför klassrummet)

Tisdag mitt på dagen..

Jag har nu skrivit in mig på "ligningskontoret" i stadsdelen Töyen och sen har jag varit på skolan och skrivit ut ett case. Jag har även fotograferat lite, samt ordnat med ett norskt telefonnummer. Detta var klurigare än jag trodde, då man verkligen behöver ett norskt personnummer innan man kan köpa en "startpakke" som ett kontantkort heter. Det finns lika "bra" urval som hemma, där de olika leverantörerna mer eller mindre har samma pris. Jag köpte ett kontantkort från Chess, som är norska NetComs "billighetsvariant" (använder i alla fall samma nät). Kommer säkert att suga stenhårt..

Det är realisation på kött-deg på Töyen och sen ser jag trött ut på bild (som är tagen utanför BI), bättre kan jag inte sammanfatta dagen..

Måndag natt

Jag har nu kommit fram till Oslo och jag är f.n inneboende hos två av mina gamla kurskamrater från Köpenhamn. Jag är väldigt trött och sliten. Imorgon ska jag titta på mer semi-permanenta boenden här i Oslo och på onsdag börjar det. Ska även formellt skriva in mig i Norge imorgon, blir intressant (nåja).

Bilden visar hur jag läser en bok på tåget, intressant va? (eeeh)