Blog retrospective: 2008

Overall, 2008 was the year when a bull market suddenly turned into a bear and when the situation for thousands of MBA students changed in a nano-second. Suddenly, good and high paying employers started to implode, banks such as Lehman Brothers, Kaupthing, Fortis and UBS all took massive hits. Car makers all around the world are now trembling, which will affect thousands of laborers in Germany and in Sweden. Where is Lee Iacocca when you need him the most? Will Lou Gerstner save yet anohter company? What is going to happen to Steve Jobs Apple? - These are all questions that belong to 2009. It all started out with a different tune.

January: the Oil price for a barrell of crude passes the USD 100 mark, Tata Nano - the worlds cheapest car goes into production, The FED cuts its interest rates by 75 basis points and the stock exchange drops by 3,5 % since investors are afraid the US is heading for a recession, Heath Ledger dies, the Dem's and GOP primary are both up to speed - will Hillary make it?, I am waiting for answers from business schools

February: President Bush announce the new budget - a deficit of 410 billion USD, Super tuesday arrive - Hillary is weakened, Obama strengthened and McCain seems like a winner, Ukraine and Russia solves the dispute they have had over the gas pipelines, Fidel Castro retires, UK bank Northern Rock goes belly up, the nation Kosovo is born, I have my interview for Norwegian School of Management

March: Russia votes - Dimitry Medvedev is elected president, Obama and Hillary battle, Swedish foreign minister Carl Bildt visits Kosovo, the USD trades below 100 to the Japanese Yen, Hu Jintao is elected President of China for a second term, JP Morgan Chase announce that they will buy BearStearns and world markets plummets on this news, Pernod Ricard purchase Swedish Company Vin&Sprit (and thus the brand Absolut), I get accepted to business school and accept my spot at BI

April: Swedish post will merge with the Danish counterpart, Albania and Croatia are invited to join NATO, Hillary sees a lot of commotion in her campaign for the White House and calls on Bush to boycott the ceremony of the Olympic games, Silvio Berlusconi is elected president of Italy - again, Josef Fritzl is revealed to have incarcerated her daughter for a very very long time, GM cut production of SUVs and pick ups in detroit - they dont sell, 1-year T-bill is introduced to cope with the budget deficit in the US, I decide to sell my apartment in Stockholm

May: Microsoft withdraws their bid for Yahoo! - Jerry Yang later resigns, a near perfect tie in the Dem's race for the White House, US banks seem to tighten their lending policies - apparently too late, Crude oil breaks the USD 120 barrier, Earthquake in China, HP buys Electronic Data System - a service branch, Manchester United wins the Champions league, questions are raised regarding if Ehud Olmerts has taken bribes, I sell my apartment after some minor restoration

June: bank crisis seems to arise in the US - Wachovia fires their CEO, the price of a barrell of crude reaches a new record with an increase of more than 11 USD in one day - new price: in excess of 138 USD!, Hillary suspends her presidential campaign and Obama is in a small lead over McCain, in Sweden - the FRA law allowing emails to be stored and read by the government is put into affect, Spain wins the Euro, I am buying books of ebay.com

July: Starbucks announce that they will close shops, the US Fed tightens mortgage regulations - something seems to smell, UBS announce that they have taken losses of more than 180 billion Swedish SEK (more than the entire Swedish bank crisis 1990-1992), Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are in no danger according to Ben Bernanke, The Dark Knight - the second new installment of Batman sets several box office records worldwide, the politicians in the US seems to have understood that the financial system needs helping and several laws and plans are made public, I am waiting and reading

August: Conflict between Georgia and Russie erupts, Beijing Olympics start, UK home repossessions rise by more than 48%, Michael Phelps manages to reach 8 gold medals in one single olympic game, Obama secures the democratic nomination, Italian airliner Alitalia is now broke, Sarah Palin enters the national political scene in the US - could the GOP take the white house?, I move to Oslo and start at the MBA program at BI Norwegian School of Management

September: Unemployment rate is now at its record height in the US since 2003, Washington Mutual - a US bank - is hit hard in the financial crisis, oil prices rise through cut in OPEC production, Lehman Brothers together with AIG and other companies are hit HARD in the financial crisis - it will not just blow over, trading is hindered at the Russian stock exchange due to some heavy losses, Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley are turned into ordinary banks to increase their cash flows, firs presidential debate between Obama and McCain, I am sweating at school - its a lot

October: Biden and Palin debate - its a tie, the 700 bn USD bailout planned is signed by Bush, OJ Simpson is sentenced to jail, the noise coming from the financial markets is tedious and horrible, the Icelandic financial sector is blown to pieces, IMF warns of a global meltdown, Danish Sterling files for bankruptcy - the Icelandic owners could not afford to keep it afloat - a case of a bit aggressive gearing?, I start to feel the pressure in school

November: Obama secures the race for the White House and becomes the 44th president of the United States, Swedish I-bank Carnegie is taken over by the Swedish government due to malpractice, the Euro-zone officially enters recession, crude is now down to approximately 40 USD - a more than 100 USD decline since the record prices during the summer, pirates operates off the coast of Somalia, I finish up the first block of school and get ready to study in China

December: Manny Pacquiao defeats Oscar De La Hoya and is considered the best pound-for-pound boxer from Asia - ever, insane interest rates all over the world - Australia, Sweden and the US, the US automotive industry is biting the dust - could this be the end of the Big 3 from Detroit?, Switzerland joins the Shengen Agreement with the EU, the US economy is seeing signs of entering a depression - the Great Depression II?, fighting erupts between Palestine and Israel with catastrophic consequences, I celebrate the holidays in Shanghai and Beijing

The end of 2008 - lets hope for a good 2009 - I wish all the readers a very happy New Year!

Blog retrospective: The American Election

It has truly been a weird year and in the first of two summaries over 2008 I will write my comment on the presidential election in the US. When I first started writing this blog I never saw it as a channel for me to propel my political views. I will of course deviate from this track with this comment and highlight what I thought was the key moments in the Obama campaign.

I remember very well when I lived in Boston 2004 and when I first saw Barack Obama speak. My second cousins had worked on the Dem’s campaign to elect John Kerry – an absolute train wreck as a politician – who later lost greatly to an aggressive Bush campaign. At that time Barack Obamas victorious campaign for the senate was one of the few highlights that the Dem’s had that year. Then, I had no idea or not even a slightest thought in my head that Obama would later become the 44th president of the US. So, what did I find so intriguing about him? Well, his story was and is mesmerizing; coming from an interracial background, being raised by his grandparents to being accepted Harvard Law School and there becoming the first black editor for the Harvard Law Review. Well, some might argue “he is not different only because he is black” but the meaning is different, and that counts.

What made Obamas campaign so different? Obama launched an effective “grass roots movement” and managed through small donations en masse conquer the White House. Whenever I have read about this in Scandinavian press, I have found it hard to actually get a grip about what it is that he has actually done different than others before him, except launching a web site and discussion boards etc. To me, this doesn’t really strike me as very progressive or different, it is just that Obamas web site has become popular, people have actually sought out his details on the internet and logged on. Why? This I think is of course very easy and is a word with four letters, B-U-S-H. Bush has been an absolute disaster for the US, not through his actions but because of a completely moronic attitude and lack of cultural understanding. Add an unpopular war that was deemed victorious in 2004 and you have a mixture that the real average Joe in the US doesn’t like (and I am not talking about Joe Sixpack Wurzelbacher here). Bush forced the majority of voters who earlier backed him into something different, and through his constant flirting with the evangelicals; he managed to alienate the ordinary American people. Well, Obama did not run against Bush, but against McCain.

Why did McCain lose? Well, In my opinion McCain was an outstanding candidate that under “normal” circumstances would have won against Obama. There were some factor that didn’t function for McCain, such as being a Maverick inside the Republicans (or the Grand Old Party as they are called in the US). Being a Maverick in the GOP is not good, since you are acting out and being uncomfortable, such as speaking against the usage of torture and closing weird military facilities in Cuba (I see some similarities with the Swedish Socialist Erik Åström, who got the boot because of “truth telling”). In the field of candidates though, McCain stood out as a fantastic, managing to wipe his other contenders off the field and unite a GOP under pressure (Mitt Romney and Rudy Guilliani dropped out fairly quickly – the other two realistic candidates). The GOP played a strong game, and were ahead at the same time as the Dem’s seemed like drunk driver moving all over the place, and Hillary Clinton attacking Obama (remember the commercial where she answers the phone in the morning?). Well, here she made her largest mistake, running on a platform of electability and being ready from day 1. This message was as interesting for the US public as being given a foot massage by a sledge hammer. Hillary ended up chasing a man with momentum, constantly hammering on his single vague message – change. It was not the same medicine, it was a new medicine and people liked it.

Along came two extremely strong candidates, one with a fantastic track record of public service, another one with a fantastic charisma and speaking abilities not seen or heard since Churchill and JFK. Here, somewhere along the way… McCain slipped, and he slipped badly. The whole mess up with going to Washington but not still going when the financial crisis hit the big fan was a major issue for the campaign. In my opinion, I never really saw the “real” McCain during the entire year, I saw a man on a leash from the GOP. Weak appearances on Ellen DeGeneres show did not help when Michelle Obama seemed to become one of the most able first lady’s on the same show.

Another very wise choice from Obama was to be bold enough to choose a VP candidate who had critized him because of his lack of experience, and told the public that through discussion you get the best results, not through an intact unity. He also managed to fill the spaces where he was weak, such as in the international scene. The same cannot be said about the VP from the GOP. Sarah Palin emerged as the political MILF from hell and shocked the political landscape. It didn’t start well for Palin, taking cover for her daughters teen pregnancy and then buying clothes for 150k when the financial system was collapsing. Appearances on Katie Couric dindt go well, and McCain accused the program of being a “gotcha journalism” (wasn’t it just normal questions?). In the end the GOP had now become the drunk driver, accusing the Dem’s of being socialist and letting the watchdog Palins attack Obama for his conspiracy with William Ayers (an American terrorist). This focus was so tedious and so boring that it was ludicrous since Obama was 8 when Ayers made his deeds – he is now a professor at the University of Illinois in Chicago. Back to the interview of Palin; If you cannot name the news papers you read, you are not fit to run the biggest economy in the world. Palin was a tragic decision and very unwise and I rely on the fact that nothing, never, has anything important become of a loosing VP candidate. Edwards failed, thank you.

To me, election day was decided well before hand – you could almost feel it (or was it hope?). When I saw Obamas speech, I thought to myself, this story could only happen in one country in the world and only there. The message that the American people sent around the world was one of change, equality and willingness to be different. To think that the economic effects of electing McCain/Palin 08 would be greater than electing someone who can restore a the US as the democratic light in the world is – in my belief – naïve.

Obama (+): Clear message, fantastic oral abilities

Obama (-): Nothing, really
McCain (+): Very very little, said "no" to the usage of torture

McCain (-): Choice of VP, no single message, too old
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Overall: I dont think that Obamas victory would have been possible without the financial crisis, unfortunately

Back from China

... after a very very tedious journey home with Swiss.. I am now back in Stockholm and that feels great. Couldnt stand yet another dumpling.

Narrow perspective #2

I have now surfed the web and read up on some issues regarding the news that Barack Obama enjoys an approval rating of approximately 82 % (Read about it here and here). After going through some well written blogs and some not so well written blogs i find it staggering to see the amount of interpretation and "will" that goes into this report.

Of course, in the Scandi-blogosphere there are some patterns that can be seen. Conservatives say that Obama is "controlling" the media and that running the country is not the same as being friendly in the media. Socialists on the other hand seem to see this approval rating as a proof that "Obama is good" (Socialists sometimes have a great 6th sense, to see every important, and unimportant matter in a strict black and white scale).

Well, I dont believe in any of this. The approval rating only says one thing. That many people in the US are looking forward to see the transition of power. Do I think that Obama can live up to the millions of expectations that he has, through is vague message of change? No, of course not - to actually beleive that he can do this is utterly insane, and comment on this fact is also redundant and seem to be the biggest sickness that conservatives in the Scandi area are facing. I for one am looking forward to have a well read and well educated person in the White House, this does not necessarily mean that I support some of the Democrats often weird and BIG government plans for universal health care (nor do I mean I dont support universal health care). I strongly believe that Obama is good for the US and more importantly good for the EU and Scandi area. Obama will force the hand of the EU to take on forgotten responsibility and demand "change" from within the EU. Do you want peace in Afghanistan? Well, send troops. Do you want peace in Iraq? Send troops, share the burdons of creating democracy and you might reap the rewards of stability. Never, has the echo of anti Americanism sounded so wrong and tedious, now lets leave it at that.

The narrow perspective of Swedish media

I logged on to DI.se - the Swedish business magazine (Norwegian DN.no is better) and read a tiresome article about 2008 where they had invited two well-known debaters, Maria Rankka (Conservative) and Göran Greider (Socialist). This to me, corresponds to the worst in Scandinavian media where two, fairly well-known, persons get to "speak" to the media and adress their "truth". A very wise person once said "many of the truths we cling to depend greatly on our own point of view".

If I would have been the editor I would have seeked out a couple of Scientists, for example at KTH (the technical university in Stockholm) and Stockholm School of Economics and let them debate and think about the past year. This, of course, would have been a more analytical and longer piece which probably would have forced the reader to actually analyze and think about the past year, instead of getting their own opinions reinforced. To me, 2008 was the year when corporate greed (Incarceration of the Cevian-Man, insider trading at Handelsbanken, the collapse of investment house Carnegie) and stupid bank deals (Carnegie again, SEBs creation of "secured" house loans in the Baltics, and Swedbanks emission of new stocks in order to cover investments in the Ukraine and the Baltics) got introduced into the Swedish corporate world.

Christmas morning

We have now arrived in Shanghai with the train D301. This was an express train with better facilities than the "Z" train. We also managed to miss our train because of bad planning, but we could still re-book our out of time tickets which was good.

Check this link for a video I uploaded. I have not bothered checking the news today - I assume that things are fairly quiet now because of the holidays. I cant seem to wonder what is happening inside GM right now though. Allright, happy Christmas and Hannukah and I whish all the readers (how many are you?) a very happy and fruitful 2009. I have read this book about Google. Its not very good, i think the text is a bit sloppy and a lot of focus on the main actors, Sergey Brin and Larry Page. Well, it makes you understand why companies like GOOG and Apple can prosper in the US and not, for example, in Sweden. The vast resources of Stanford is amazing.

Nippon #1

The worlds largest auto manufacturer, Toyota, is apparently reporting a loss for the first time in 70 years. Well, this still does not mean that they are going into chapter 11. Tell me, when during the last 15 years did SAAB Automobil report a profit? huh? My favourite Japanese auto maker is still Nissan, since Carlos Ghosn took over their entire value chain seems to have gotten a sincere and healthy dose of vitamine, producing "wanna-have" products such as the new 350Z and the Qashqai. A CEO to admire.

Read the story on WSJ.com.

Christmas on the train..

Due to the terrible weather we are going back to Shanghai to stay at this hotel; Mercure Baolong. They have an indoor pool which Im definitely going to enjoy after the nice visits to the Great Wall..

Shanghai; 2 - Beijing; 0

Well... after being in Beijing for two days now I can honestly say that I prefer the city of Shanghai to the city of Beijing. However, I went to a restaurant called "Haiku" and had some delicious sushi. It was fantastic. I also saw the Forbidden City.. I would have enjoyed it a lot - if not for the furious cold.

This photo of me is from the forbidden city.. it was colder than -10 degrees (metric) with an icy wind.. I had not packed the appropriate clothes, which made the whole situation quite bad. I think im listening to some tape about a certain building (i have had better times).

Beijing before the holidays..

Well, we passed the final day of Hanukkah yesterday.. and in two days we are going to have Christmas here in Beijing. Weather.com says that it will continue to be cold in Beijing.. probably around -10 degrees celsius which is really horrible.

Today, we are going to try to find a place where we can buy warmer mittens (or gloves) and then we are going to go to the Forbidden City.

There was also a fairly interesting article in the Swedish Business Newspaper DI.se. DI had interviewed a couple of Swedish students at the Harvard Business School. Well, apparently, it seems as though the economy is falling down really hard in the US.

Beijing

The weather today was absolutely horrible today - terrible and horrible. I think it was below 0 and powerful wind. We also encountered a moronic taxi driver and realized that Michaels House was situated at a weird side street which makes it hard for cab-drivers to find.

This means that I am checking the weather for Beijing.

Train to Beijing.

We have now managed to reach Beijing with the Z.14 train from Shanghai to Beijing. To sum up:

• Cheap
• Fairly hard "beds"
• Fairly good restaurant

Michaels House is located in a weird neighbourhood. I am now going to relax in the room for an hour or two before heading out. I must say it feels good to see something else than Shanghai. And, well.. its really cold here. Might have to visit H&M (if there is a store here in Beijing).

I also finished reading Watchmen by Alan Moore. Fantastic, what a thrill. Rorschach is definitely a favourite.

Exodus from Shanghai

Today, we had our final evening in Shanghai. Well, yesterday we had our final night out with the entire class. We also "lost" two classmates that were on rotation through Mannheim Business School. Patricia and Maike are now off to the UK and then for their final trimester in Mannheim. It has been a treat to have them in the class.

For me, I am sort of "fed up" of the hotel and I cant wait to go to Beijing. In Beijing I hope that I will see some of the sites from the olympics and eat some great food. I also hope to visit some cultural sites and see another major "worl city". I have been in China two times before - first three weeks and then approx 6 months and I have never seen anything but Shanghai.. time to change that now. Picked up my suits and my shirts. The shirts were very very good and the suits good. Some smaller issues but very good for work. I can really recommend Shirley (address below - CTRL+F, search Shirley)

Final lecture in China - Block 2 over

We are now having our final lecture with Dr Dunren Zhou. He is a senior professor at Fudan University in American studies and has had several guest lectures - for example at the Copenhagen Business School which I attended when he was there.. Quite funny, I had no idea about that.

In his class, we were asked to write a short thesis on a political subject in his class. I chose to write a short introduction about China's dependence on oil from the Middle East. Feels good to be able to use an interest in the daily course of the school work. Well, feels good.

By the way, Im staying in China over the holidays.. and on saturday Im taking the "Z-train" to Beijing. Going to be very interesting.

Horrible experience with ICBC

Today, I had a horrible experience at an ATM belonging to ICBC in Northern Shanghai. I went into the booth, tried to withdraw money but no money were dispenced by the machine. Well, money was drawn from my account. Great, great.

(I now got my money back, a couple of days after - thank you Skandiabanken.. great service)

Final course in China has started

I am currently taking a break from the last course here in China. It feels quite good that we are seeing an end to this block here in China. I dont really know how the general feelings are in the class, but I feel torn about the program here in China.

Besides that, apparently the whole crazy Madoff ponzi scheme thing seems just like another nail in Wall Streets coffin this year and I cant help to ask myself: when will this flood of completely devastating news end? Are we seeing a new start in january? Are we seeing a new wave of consumer confidence? and when have we hit bottom?

Some friends with banking insight here in our class believe that the market will flatten out in the middle of 2009. Others believe that the market will pick itself together in the beginning of 2010. Well, what can you say. Im tired of the whole thing.

(I have also managed to start watching a lot of episodes of the Unit - an American TV show, its good and produced by legendary David Mamet, who wrote a play that turned into a movie that truly is the real deal, Glengarry Glen Ross)

Practical Shanghai information

Today, the air was more crisp and "clean" than it has been here in Shanghai during my visit. Since I was here in 2005 and 2002 I can therefore say that I have some clear impressions of the life here in Shanghai, and how it has changed in my eyes.

• More stuff to buy; before.. there were a lot of 'crappy' stores, but now its better
  
• Inflation; the price tags on the stuff you would like to buy is more or less the same to Scandinavia (example, a nice pair of Nike sneakers, easily 700-800 RMB)


• More cars; constant traffic jams

On the other hand, I have found a great tailor who is recommended by the Norwegian consulate. Some other tailors that I have been to here before have charged very high prices - but the quality have been extremely good. Well, Shirley masters English and has predominantly western clients. Here are the details of here whereabouts in Shanghai. (Price examples: Western suit, 2 pcs, approximately 700 RMB greatly depending on the fabric, shirt - 100 RMB depending on the fabric, the bow ties - together with a big handkerchief for suit pocket 80 RMB). She operates a stand, and most often, these stands have an extremely bad sense of quality, service, finish and understanding of western fashion and fit. Shirley is good.. a better report on that later.
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Her adress:
No. 216 Shop, Ms. Shirley Zhao,
Mobile number: 130 4466 6631
168 Dong Men Lu (near Zhong Hua Lu)

Interesting take on crisis

A lot of "noise" has been written about the current crisis about banks, CDOs and CFDs. A lot has also been written about a default banking system that needs to revised as Wall Street former giants has collapsed and people humiliated (Dick Fuld) while others seems to have lost their minds completely (John Thain demanded a bonus since he had helped the bank out of bankruptcy, what?).

On one hand - as this really great article put forward - no-one forced the bank executives to lend money to people on dubious interest rates, no-one forced the CEOs to repackage weird debt into derivatives and sell these to (foremost Swiss banks). This article by Daniel Gross sees the whole subprime business from a different perspective, as a market that enables millions of americans to pursue their goals such as starting a business, buying a home or restructuring their financial situation. Subprime mortgages is an enabler, not something that we should work against. Its a great piece of information and insight. Read it here: "A risk worth taking"

Big 3 to collapse? Part II

So, here is another interesting article about the defunct bail out plan that the senate voted "nay" on in the US. I think this is an interesting time about the world auto industry. I had a conversation with Carl S. today in class and we discussed the Swedish automakers (SAAB being owned by GM and Volvo by Ford). Of course, allowing these firms to go into bankruptcy would be ok under "normal" circumstances - and as economic market theory suggest, a good thing. Let the "bad" non functional companies die, while others with a more sound business plan live on.. If I were not for one thing: J-O-B-S.

In the US alone, approximately 2 million people are dependent on the auto companies, 2 million! that is almost 1 % of the grand total of working people in the US.. Can you image, three companies goes bust and your un-employment rate goes up with 1 %! Insane, I dont think that the Swedish economy will face the same staggering numbers, but.. well, if you are sitting with an excel spread sheet and start to calculate.. what if the government would take over, run the companies, slowly but surely downsize the companies at a loss - but with an option to make profit instead of taking the costs of having tens of thousands people in unemployment. It would be like working, for the sake of working. Economically insane, since the two companies, Volvo and SAAB has not had the focus or knowledge to produce products that are slightly wanted by the market (I think i heard that you need somewhere around 150 000 units to be sold in order to sustain a new base plate for a car and the Swedish car makers come in at around 20' a year, i think). I remember when the new SAAB 900 reached the market.. it was a huge thing, I think it was in 1992 and SAAB bought an entire evening in Swedens largest commercial channel (TV4). It was said to be saviour of the company, well.. it didnt.

Anyway, somewhere in my heart.. i strongly believe that these companies should be allowed to go into bankruptcy and that we are seeing a new world order as the US companies slowly dissolve into nothingness. What brought them down? I think it has to do with the fact that Americans slowly woke up and realized that oil is a commodity that can reach staggering prices, and that they themselves has to pay for it. The manufacturers, insane and blind as they were, thought that the dream of everyone was to drive a Hummer. Dont get me wrong, I would like to drive a Range Rover.. but not at any cost, and definitely not at the marginal costs of a Range Rover (which more or less tells everyone about my position). Well, Rick Wagoner et al in Detroit strangely did not understand what cars and manufacturing was about. Getting smoothly from "A" to "B" in a nice comfortable and CHEAP manner and providing this service with products that yield a profit (that rules out SAAB and Volvo as well). I have also thought the Swedish automakers have had a HUGE problem with positioning their products. Why strive for the luxurious and premium segment when you have absolutely nothing to show for this? Both Volvo and SAAB are in a middle segment in the home market (Scandinavia). Just because you ship the product a couple of hundred miles (or thousand) doesnt make it premium. Look at Audi - a brand that took a lot of hits in the end of the 80's, then through hard work and smart marketing making it into the premium segment. Volvo and SAAB has not a chance, through dumb and insane marketing have they managed to erode themselves at the same time as they have lacked the knowledge to back it up: do you honestly think that a Honda Accord is less safe than a Volvo V70. I dont. What is SAABs public position again? See, who knows. I think it has something to do with airplanes, but Im not sure. Just because I dislike the swedish automakers knowledge of how to build wanted products doesnt mean I dont feel sorry for all the very competent workers that suffer from moronic leadership.

.... a parallel, remember the coal mines in the UK and then, well.. the automakers in the UK. Palin '12? Just kidding.

Just in: Goldman Sachs alters their price estimation on crude from approx 80 to 30, and then.. long term barrel price: 45. Last year the same firm shocked the market by providing an estimation of approximately 200 a barrel. Interesting times we live in.

Big 3 to collapse?

It now seems that we are seeing the collapse of the US automakers. GM proclaims that they cannot sustain business the year out without government aid. Can you imagine? no more GM, no more Chrysler and Ford. I think its absolutely astonishing that they have survived during so many years producing weird cars that noone really wants to buy. It makes the story about Steve Jobs and the big three more "entertaining".

Well, tomorrow.. im gonna go down to the textile market and maybe - purchase two suits. I have not really made up my mind, but the tailor is supposed to be good. Im thinking about waiting until I see the results from those of my class mates, since I am staying another week.

The end is getting nearer

... only 7 days left of actual studies here in China. Visited my old professor Espen Andersens blog and he posted a link on how it would be if Steve Jobs would run one of Detroits big 3. Its a very fun read.

Other issues in the news.. oil is going up (bouncing back?) and reaching a record volatility. Interesting for the valuation of new oil/gas wells. Wouldnt want to sit with the option valuation model now.

The Japanese keiretsu.

Since I am in Asia, I have read some smaller articles (like Wiki) on the occurrance of Japanese Keiretsus (I used the keiretsus as an example when I compared corporate culture in China to the rest of the world). Here is an interesting, longer article from Harvard Law School called "The Fable of the Keiretsu". Its quite interesting, if you look past the numerical analysis.

Absolutely great summary of the financial crisis

I have recently seen a video from 60 Minutes called "Wall Street's Shadow Market". I think this is one of the best summaries that I have seeen/read since this whole mess started - of course nothing new to the insider or the very interested, but still.. its great. Something to look at for the Nordic news providers.

Interesting article in Prospect Magazine

Prospect Magazine, had a great article about the arrival of new classes in our society. Read about it here. And the link to the actual front page of the magazine here.

Today, it was warmer..

Today, it was a lot warmer in Shanghai.. i think, easily above 10 degrees celsius (i dont know the fahrenheit scale). I have also reserved a room at Michael's House in Beijing for Holiday celebration. Spin the dreidl, spin it!

Cold in China

Its starting to get cold in the Shanghai area. Im wearing several sweaters but still i feel chilly. I have also read in the news that the old fraudster (!!!) Bernie Ebbers has handed in a request to be pardoned by Pres. Bush. Bernie Ebbers was the person who owned the worlds largest privately owned ranch and managed to force WorldCom into a nice little bancruptcy in the 2003 (i think).

As usual, Roger Lowenstein, has written a very interesting book about the corporate scandals that plagued the US economy during the beginning of the new millenia. Its called "Origins of the Crash: The Great Bubble and Its Undoing" and is well worth buying and reading. Amazon link here. Capris link here.

By the way, here is a link to a program where Roger Lowenstein discuss his new book "While America Aged". Unfortunately, I have not read the book yet.

A funny comment made by room mate at the hotel.

Carl S. told me this funny line a couple of days ago:

"When Darth Vader was a teen, he had a problem with zits"

Well, if you are an "insider" in Star Wars lingo, you will find it funny.

An interesting article in Swedish SvD

I read this article about the financial crisis in the Swedish newspaper Svenska Dagbladet. Its quite good.

Another week has passed..

Another week has passed here in China.. On wednesday Im off to the textile market to see if my bow ties turned out good.. If they are at least ok, then Im happy... if not, then Im impressed with the poor skills of the tailor.. She was recommended by the Norwegian consulate, so Ill hope she can make it. My classmates who went to some other un-known tailors were not so lucky.. a lot of the pieces that they had made were sort of a bit "off", the finish was sort of not that good and a lot of alterations had to be made. Well, you cannot win every time.

I have a hard time believing that the oil price has gone below USD 40. This cannot be any kind of steady state, i think we are seeing a pendulum motion, where the market is overreacting to the "low" consumption in the US. I mean, every little event is bent over backwards in order to overanalyze the meaning. But, then again, what do I know about that? Now, Ill have to start reading some ethics papers.

More Christensen-bashing

I have found the following article about a research case made by scientist Erwin Daneels. The piece is called Disruptive Technology Reconsidered:A Critique and Research Agenda. I have only read the summary so far, and it looks promising.

What Daneels claims is that only a handfull of disruptive technologies actually succeed and that Christensen searched for the patterns crucial for a disruptive technology.

To me, even though I like some of the critique put forward... very few seems to have the background and actual practice that Christensen has. Plus, sometimes its very good and interesting to conceptualize economic and business risks on a framework such as "disruptive innovation".

The myth of disruptive technology

I have found and read this story (called "The myth of disruptive technology")put forward by John Dvorak. He basically uses a chainsaw to cut down Clayton Christensen theory about disruptive technologies, and uses phrases such as:

"The microcomputer was never a "less expensive" and "inferior" replacement for minicomputers. It was a more expensive and superior replacement for calculators and slide rules. It was never used "instead of" a minicomputer (or mainframe for that matter) but "in addition to."

"There is no such thing as a disruptive technology. There are inventions and new ideas, many of which fail while others succeed. That's it."

Its a good read and it makes you think.