Consumer confidence in Scandinavia

It now seems that a lot of data is coming in from how Q4 2008 was. It seems as if the consumer confidence has hit a record low (Bloomberg). At the same time, the Swedish chief of the central bank, Stefan Ingves, assume that the Swedish economy will see an increase in GDP in the beginning of 2010 (DI).

I must say that I see a large differences between how the consumers feel in the EU and Scandi. Some issues that I believe will impact the Swedish economy in 2009 - which I believe will force the Swedish economy to see a long recession (unfortunately).

(1) Risk of inflation - the low interest rate allows consumers to borrow more on future income. More monetary funds are inserted in the economic system. If (more a question of when) the interest increases, in order to cap the price increases and lower the demand for money, the central bank will increase interest rates rather rapidly (to prevent what happened in 2004, 2005 and 2006).
(2) Consumer gearing - A variable that is very much interrelated with (1). When the interest rate goes up, and the demand for return-for-risk goes up, the Swedish consumers will have to cut down their consumption to manage to repay their coupon payments.
(3) Jobb losses in the service sector - Sweden has not yet seen large job losses in the same way as the US. Of course, the Swedish economy is in a better shape than that of the US; but the economy will be affected. Old business models will die (SAAB for example) which will force down the demand for labor, and in the end - services.

(This situaiton would mean a stagflation) Who are then the winners? The people who are sitting on stablie assets (whichever these are, Swedish krona not included) and people who can afford to pay their debt coupons! These will probably see their large debt positions get eaten up by inflation and sail into the future, with less debt and smaller debt burdens for studies. The loosers? everyone else and people who will get squeezed out from the housing sector.